Stock: VIST
Rating: Good
Author: Waleed M. Tariq
Company Overview
- The company has 181.6 MMboe of proven reserves (81 percent oil) and is Argentina’s third-largest oil producer.
- Vista’s oil and gas output climbed 35% and 9% YoY from 34,100 to 43,900 boe per day.
Bullish
- Vista’s oil and gas output rose 35% and 9% YoY, from 34,100 to 43,900 boe/d.
- Production increases and organic growth have boosted its growth.
- Long-term growth possibilities make me positive on the stock.
Bearish
- Risky business environment.
Sustainable Growth
- Vista’s revenue growth has exceeded its price rise as output has increased from 34100 to 43900 boe/d.
- Oil, Gas, and NGL prices rose 41%, 48%, and 50%, but revenues rose 81%, 65%, and 56%.
- Its 79 percent YoY revenue rise was due to higher oil production and prices.
- Vista plans to produce 46,500 boe per day in 2022 with $400 million and 24 additional wells.
Valuation
- The company’s value metrics are above industry medians. The stock would be $16.70 at industry medians, a 70% gain.
- Following the stock’s spectacular growth rate, I think it’s cheap, so my price goal is between the average and high analyst targets.
Macroeconomic Risk
- Macroeconomic hazards should be considered. Argentina’s risk premium is four times Brazil’s, which has stronger offshore growth.
- Over 50% inflation and 40% poverty have limited price and trade, reducing profit potential and closing firms.
- The government’s capital control limits exports, including capital imports, debt service agreements, and dividends.
Conclusion
- Despite Argentina’s economic risks, I’m positive on the stock. Vaca Muerta’s strong growth scenario boosts Vista’s long-term growth potential.