Antero Resources Corporation

Stock: AR

Rating: Good

Author: Waleed M. Tariq

Company Overview

  • Antero Resources is the 5th largest US natural gas and NGL producer.
  • The company averaged 3.2 Bcfe per day in 2022.
  • AR owns 29.1% of Antero Midstream, which services AR’s production and completion.

Bullish

  • The company’s cash flow should double from 2021 to 2022.
  • Geopolitical conflicts are projected to raise commodities prices, supporting AR’s revenue growth.
  • High cash generation, strengthening debt position, and hopeful Natural Gas market make me bullish.

Bearish

  • The company missed Q4 2021 EPS by 42%, producing $0.19.

Hedging market prices

  • Due to geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia, oil prices have surged to approximately $100. AR is on course for its highest annual C3+ price.
Source: Statista
  • At $2.50 Henry Hub, 52% of gas production is hedged. Hedge strip gets $844 million. 2023: All goods will be unhedged. Hedging costs decrease cash flow.
Source: Natural Gas Intel

Cash Flows and Debt

  • Gas, NGL, and oil sales up 15% to $6.65b. FCF is $1.85 billion from AM dividends, hedges, NCI payments, anticipated CapEx, and operations. 10% error=$1.66 billion.

Valuation

  • The company’s expected ahead P/E ratio is 6.7, P/S is 1.2, and P/B is 1.2. The stock’s low price ratio suggests further gains.
  • CFO: FCF yield to Market Cap is 22%. Price to FCF is 4.25 with $1.6B in FCF and 300M shares outstanding.

Conclusion

  • Despite rising prices, investors can still enter the market without buying pricey shares. Growth investors should buy the stock.